Pending Home Sales on an Upswing

RISMEDIA, May 5, 2010—Pending home sales increased again in March 2010, affirming that a surge of home sales is unfolding for the spring home buying season, according to the National Association of Realtors®. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, rose 5.3% to 102.9 from 97.7 in February, and is 21.1% above March 2009 when it was 85.0; this follows an 8.3% increase in February. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable affordability conditions have been working with the tax credit. “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilize the market. In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second half of the year, and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see home values stabilizing.”

The PHSI in the Northeast declined 3.3% to 75.1 in March but remains 27.2% higher than March 2009. In the Midwest the index increased 1.2% to 98.9 and is 18.5% above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South jumped 12.7% to an index of 121.2, which is 28.3% higher than March 2009. In the West the index rose 1.9% to 99.9 and is 8.8% above a year ago.

“Another encouraging sign is the improvement in the availability for jumbo and second-home mortgages,” Yun said. “As bank balance sheets strengthen, it is just a matter of time before lending of non-government-backed mortgages steadily opens up.”

The National Association of Realtors, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is one of America’s largest trade associations, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20% of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

What is an FHA loan?

It’s a bit of a misnomer, since Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans are not loans at all. What they do is insure loans so that lenders can offer mortgage assistance to people who:

  • Have fair or poor credit
  • Have a low down payment (must have at least 3.5%)
  • Have undergone bankruptcy
  • Have been foreclosed on

Essentially, the federal government insures loans for FHA-approved lenders so that lenders reduce their risk of loss if they lend to borrowers who could default on their mortgage payments. The FHA program has been in place since the 1930s to help stimulate the housing market by making loans accessible and affordable. Traditionally, FHA loans have helped military families who return from war, the elderly, handicapped, or lower-income families, but really, anyone can get an FHA loan - they are not just for first-time home buyers.

Top 10 Home Buying Mistakes

Going solo - Buying a house is a complex transaction. It should be a team effort. You’ll need a real estate agent, lender, inspector, insurer, perhaps a lawyer and other team members to help you through each step of the way. Team build before you start the search.

Love at first sight - If you believe in fairy tales you probably shouldn’t be buying a home. You won’t live happily ever after if you emote your way through the home buying process. Your home should fit your real needs, not your yen for drama. Buy a home that fits your budget and your lifestyle. Be sure the home is in a community and neighborhood you desire. Visit neighborhoods several times before you buy to check out schools, noise and traffic patterns.

‘Loanless’ shopping - Being pre-qualified gives you a general idea of how much you can afford to borrow. It’s better to be pre-approved for a given loan. Sellers will take you more seriously. You’ll stay on budget.

Overbuying - Home buyers buying more than they could truly afford, in part, led to the collapse of the housing market. Buy more than you can afford and your dream home will become the same nightmare. Analyze all your monthly costs including debts, food, transportation, entertainment, and savings. Your total monthly debts, including your mortgage, should not exceed 36 percent of your income before taxes. Don’t forget to budget closing costs (often two to five percent of the home’s purchase price), plus moving, redecorating and maintenance. Look ahead and allow for increases in ongoing expenses such as utilities and taxes.

Misplaced trust - You are engaged in what’s likely your most valuable acquisition ever. It’s a business transaction. Ask family, friends, co-workers, professionals and others you trust for referrals, but don’t take their word for it. Vet your team members.

Accepting oral agreements - Get it in writing. The rate lock, the home inspection, disclosures, the contract. Always. Should a dispute arise, you’ve got the details documented.

Skipping the fine print - Understand what’s really in any document before picking up a pen. Get documents in advance, take time to read them and ask questions. Get copies of your mortgage and closing papers a few days ahead of closing.

Forgetting or betting on resale - Avoid buying a home that costs 50 percent more than neighboring homes. Reconsider buying the most expensive home on the block. Neighbors’ lower home values will weaken yours. Buy intending to flip your investment only to have the market fail means when it’s time to sell your price may not cover your costs.

Making an unconditional offer - Protect yourself with these contingencies:

• Mortgage financing: You may be preapproved but is the house? A formal appraisal confirms — or not — that there is sufficient value in the home to warrant the loan. If the house appraises lower than the sales price, the loan may be declined.

• Inspection: Never buy an existing or new home without a thorough home inspection. Walk through the home with the inspector to learn more about the house and any concerns he or she may have.

• Insurance: Confirm you can get adequate insurance coverage. In some areas, or following certain disasters, it can be difficult to get types of hazard insurance.

Roaring Fork Valley will likely trail the National statistics

It seems a strange rule of thumb to say that our little valley will follow the national real estate trend, just at a 6 month delay. I mean, that just sounds like tooo much of a generalization to me. but it has happened that way for every major movement in the real estate market for the past 10 years.

What this means for us, is that we are probably at the bottom of the market. Yes, you heard me. I am going out on a limb and making the call. We’re at the bottom.

What’s the bottom mean you ask? The bottom is the best time to buy! Time to take action. If you have been a bit nervous about taking on debt and dumping all your hard earned money into real estate over the last couple of years, I can’t say a blame you. But I believe that the danger has passed and that it is now time to go for it.

Real Estate has historically been one of the best places to put your money over the long term, and for those that buy in the current market, it is likely that will be true for the future as well. Let’s take a look at all the reasons to buy NOW:

1. Tax credit still applies until the end of this month. That means $8000 for first timers and $6500 for those buyers that have lived in their current residence for 5 years or more and are now making a move.

2. Mortgage rates are rediculously low. This is one of the primary factors that determine whether a loan will be affordable for you.

3. HUGE, and I mean HUGE, selection of homes to choose from. A few years ago, the average buyer that I worked with would have one or two homes to choose from that were in their price range. This didn’t give them alot of options when it came to all the features that they would have liked to have in their home. Now, I typically narrow down a list of 30-40 homes by asking my clients to be more and more picky! Then we go and look at 10 - 20 homes and I again ask them to be MORE picky. This is the market to find your TRUE dream home.

4. If you don’t buy now, you’ll be paying rent right? That is money out the window.

5. Many sellers are anxious to sell and are open to negotiation.

6. Tax benifits, financial stability, pride of ownership, freedom to do what you like with your own property, and all the traditional reasons why it has always been a good idea to buy your own home. All of these things are still true, despite what you may have heard in the media!

In closing I’ll say it one more time, just in case you missed it. We’re at the bottom…BUY, BUY, BUY! (And of course buy what you can afford. Don’t over extend yourself because there is no need to in this buyers market.)

Home prices showing signs of strength

By Alan Zibel

updated 9:28 a.m. MT, Tues., March. 30, 2010

NEW YORK - A surprisingly strong rebound in California’s real estate market helped lift a key home price index for the eighth month in a row.

That’s good news for people who plan to sell their homes this spring. Prices are now up almost 4 percent from the bottom in May 2009, but still almost 30 percent below the May 2006 peak.

Prices rose 0.3 percent from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index released Tuesday. Prices increased in 12 cities in the index.

The biggest monthly gain was in Los Angeles, where prices rose 1.8 percent from December. And real estate agents say there’s a distinct sense the worst of the downturn is over.

Buyers are “seeing that prices are creeping up,” said Tony Middleton, a real estate agent with ZIP Realty who concentrates on the San Fernando Valley. “They’re losing bids on homes and they have to bid again.”

Prices in San Diego, meanwhile, rose by almost 0.9 percent. Phoenix had the third-largest gain at 0.8 percent.

Compared with the same month last year, the 20-city index was off just 0.7 percent from last year at a reading of 146.32. That was the smallest decline in almost three years and in line with analysts’ expectations, according to Thomson Reuters.

Rising home prices also could boost consumer optimism. For most Americans, their home is their largest asset, so as values climb from the depths of the housing bust, homeowners feel wealthier and more comfortable spending. And, for homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, rising prices rebuild equity.

Consumer confidence rebounded in March after a February plunge, according to a survey released Tuesday. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 52.5 in March, recovering about half of the nearly 11 points it lost in February.

Still, shoppers remain cautious and there are signs that last year’s housing rebound won’t last. Home sales sank during the winter, and government incentives that have propped up the market are ending.

Another reason for the positive news is simply that the Case-Shiller index measures a three-month average of home prices. So January’s report includes November’s strong home sales.

Many analysts expect that the Case-Shiller number will eventually turn downward.

“It is only a matter of time before the index records a double-dip in prices,” wrote Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics, who forecasts a 5 percent drop. The market will be tested in the second half of the year, he wrote, when a tax credit that has boosted sales is gone.

The Case-Shiller index measures home price increases and decreases relative to prices in January 2000. The base reading is 100; so a reading of 150 would mean that home prices increased 50 percent since the beginning of the index.

Property prices up in US in February with increased foreclosures not harming the market, report says

Monday, 08 March 2010  by Property Wire

Residential property prices in the US increased 5% in February from a year ago despite an incoming wave of real estate owned property that lenders are dumping on the market.The increase in prices comes on top of a 2.3% yearly increase in January but prices are unchanged on a quarterly basis, according to the figures from the Clear Capital Home Data Index.‘If the increase in demand that preceded the end of the last tax credit is any indication, home prices may dip only slightly into negative territory before getting an added boost before the April tax credit deadline,’ said Alex Villacorta, senior statistician at Clear Capital.

Among the best performing areas is Providence, Rhode Island, where they increased 6.1% from the previous three months, the highest increase of any metropolitan statistical area (MSA). California had five of the 15 highest performing markets as Los Angeles prices gained 2.2% over the rolling quarter.In 11 of the top 15 markets REO saturation increased by an average of 1.3% but Villacorta said they do not seem to be harming the market. ‘We observed an expected increase in REO saturation this month as the flow of foreclosures continued to come into the market, while traditional non-distressed sales wait to be listed in the spring and summer months,’ he explained.

The price gains in the early months of 2010 contrast sharply with 2009, when credit lines were cinched, investments dropped in value and financial institutions facing failure dumped REOs onto the market, according to the report.Meanwhile the March edition of the Beige Book from the Federal Reserve shows that residential estate markets showed improvement but like many economic sectors, the unusually harsh winter weather across America this year slowed growth.

Improvement in the residential real estate market has been primarily in the low-end and starter home sector, the result of the extended homebuyer tax credit. The Philadelphia, Cleveland, Kansas City, and Dallas Federal Reserve Districts reported that sales were strongest in that sector, both due to the tax credit and the difficulty obtaining financing for higher-end homes. The St Louis and Richmond districts reported mixed results, but in Richmond, the district noted better weather might have created residential housing improvement.

Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource certification

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 

Company Name: Harmony Ventures, Inc.

Telephone Number:970-309-9249

Email Address: Mike@RoaringForkProperty.com

Web site address: www. RoaringForkProperty.com

Michael S. Dunn Earns NAR Short Sales and Foreclosure Certification Buyers and Sellers Benefit from REALTOR® Expertise in Distressed Sales 

City, State, Date — Michael S. Dunn with Harmony Ventures Inc. has earned the nationally recognized Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource certification. The National Association of REALTORS® offers the SFR certification to REALTORS® who want to help both buyers and sellers navigate these complicated transactions, as demand for professional expertise with distressed sales grows.

According to a recent NAR survey, nearly one-third of all existing homes sold recently were either short sales or foreclosures.  For many real estate professionals, short sales and foreclosures are the new “traditional” transaction.  REALTORS® who have earned the SFR certification know how to help sellers maneuver the complexities of short sales as well as help buyers pursue short sale and foreclosure opportunities.

“As leading advocates for homeownership, REALTORS® believe that any family that loses its home to foreclosure is one family too many, but unfortunately, there are situations in which people just cannot afford to keep their homes, and a foreclosure or a short sale results,” said 2009 NAR President Charles McMillan. “Foreclosures and short sales can offer opportunities for home buyers and benefit the larger community, as well, but it’s extremely important to have the help of a real estate professional like a REALTOR® who has earned the SFR certification for these kinds of purchases.”  The certification program includes training on how to qualify sellers for short sales, negotiate with lenders, protect buyers, and limit risk, and provides resources to help REALTORS® stay current on national and state-specific information as the market for these distressed properties evolves.

Reminder about the free $8,000

I just wanted to remind everyone that the free $ from the tax credits are going to expire on April 30, 2010.  For first time homebuyers, that means $8000 less towards your first purchase if you don’t get something under contract by the 30th.

This also applise to the $6,500 offered for folks who have lived in their current house for 5 years and want to buy a different home to be their primary residence.

If your on the fence about buying…take advantage of this free money while you still can!

-Mike

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